With a month left in the year, investors are getting ready to close up 2012 and begin preparing for what 2013 has to throw their way. Here are five market themes Goldman Sachs is expecting for next year.
With a month left in the year, investors are getting ready to close up 2012 and begin preparing for what 2013 has to throw their way.
Goldman Sachs’ Economics Research team just released its report on the Top Ten Market Themes for 2013. The report covers the big stories that will dominate the markets in the coming year.
Of course, all predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. Even the best of the best can make seemingly correct forecasts that turn out to be wrong.
Here are five from Goldman’s top 10 market themes for 2013:
China’s growth will be stable, but not like the old days, according to Goldman. Recently, the country has been releasing reports that growth is slowing, which caused worries. While Goldman doesn’t see much of a rebound from China, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development disagrees, expecting China’s economy to accelerate briskly over the next two years.
Goldman expects commodity constraint to loosen in the medium term. Oil markets should return to a more stable position.
“The relaxation of the energy supply constraint globally reduces one major obstacle to a global recovery as we look to above-trend global growth into 2014 and beyond,” the economics research team wrote.
3. Emerging market growth constraints
Eyes should always be on emerging markets — although depending on how certain possible investing events turn out, investing in emerging markets could either benefit or hurt your portfolio. According to Goldman, emerging markets will have less room to grow than developed markets.
2. Housing stabilization
The U.S. housing market has been in recovery for the last year and Goldman predicts that housing activity will continue to increase. Domestic banks will benefit from a “normalization of housing credit finance if home prices continue to drift higher.”
1. Global growth hump
Goldman is forecasting that the global economy will be weak at the beginning of 2013 as companies implement increased fiscal restraints. However, certain risks — such as Spain’s economy and Italy’s politics — will ease in the second half of the year, leaving room to grow.
Goldman: These 10 Stories Will Dominate Markets in 2013 — Business Insider