30% of all U.S. medical care could be virtual by 2026

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Telehealth may soon account for nearly one-third of all medical appointments in the U.S., according to a forecast by health care IT firm ScienceSoft.

That trajectory, however, hinges on something far less predictable: Washington.

Though lawmakers extended key Medicare telehealth flexibilities earlier this year, the provisions expire again on September 30, leaving practices in limbo just months from now. The temporary nature of these rules — and the exclusion of several popular pandemic-era telehealth programs — has created a cloud of uncertainty over how virtual care will fit into long-term health care strategy.

“Key obstacles to telemedicine adoption are related to regulations rather than technological barriers or lack of demand,” Gala Batsishcha, M.D., a health care IT consultant at ScienceSoft, wrote in the February forecast.

Surge in mental health adoption signals staying power

ScienceSoft’s analysis highlights one specialty in particular: mental health. In 2023, 38.3% of all mental health encounters in the U.S. were conducted via telehealth. The report argues this sustained demand reflects both patient preference and physician adaptability, despite broader declines in telehealth use after the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The resilient utilization in mental health shows that the necessary technology and demand are already in place,” Batsishcha said in the report. “The future of its adoption — whether it continues to increase or returns to pre-pandemic levels, largely depends on government decision-makers.”

Hospitals are ready, patients are willing

By early 2024, nearly 79% of U.S. hospitals had telehealth systems in place, according to Definitive Healthcare data. And patients — particularly in rural areas or with mobility or scheduling challenges — continue to seek out virtual care for its convenience and accessibility.

The problem isn’t enthusiasm. It’s policy.

Congress extended many Medicare telehealth flexibilities through September 30, 2025, including expanded access to virtual visits from home and support for a broader range of physicians. But programs like audio-only visit reimbursement, telehealth allowances for high-deductible health plans and cross-state licensing reforms were left out of the extension.

Clinician benefits — and concerns

For physicians, telehealth offers efficiency gains, reduced no-shows and opportunities to offload lower-acuity visits. ScienceSoft notes that virtual care models — like remote patient monitoring (RPM) and digital triage — can expand capacity without increasing overhead, a crucial benefit for resource-strapped practices.

Even so, not all clinicians are sold.

“It’s important to strike a balance here,” Batsishcha wrote. “For routine follow-ups, medication refills, mental health consultations or minor ailments like colds and flu, virtual visits can be an excellent way to save time and reduce strain on the health care system. However, for more complex or urgent issues … an in-person visit is crucial for an accurate diagnosis and immediate intervention.”

For many, the concern is that critical symptoms could be missed without a physical exam, and the interpersonal trust of the physician-patient relationship could erode if telehealth services become overused or impersonal.

The road ahead

Whether virtual care continues its expansion or hits a wall now depends on what happens in Congress between now and the fall.

Following March’s continuing resolution which kept telehealth options afloat through the end of September, industry leaders, including the American Telemedicine Association (ATA), urged lawmakers to make the current flexibilities permanent and restore expired programs that many patients and practices have come to rely on.

ScienceSoft’s report remains bullish on the potential — predicting 25-30% of all U.S. medical visits could be virtual by the end of 2026 — but that’s only if lawmakers provide long-term certainty.

“The necessary technology and demand are already in place,” Batsishcha wrote. “Key obstacles to telemedicine adoption are related to the regulations rather than technological barriers or lack of demand.”