Interestingly, most investors don't really understand the natural gravity of stocks. In fact, they find every way possible to confuse matters.
Even in the remotest corner of the world, everyone understands the law of gravity. When you drop something … it will fall to the ground.
Interestingly, most investors don't really understand the natural gravity of stocks. In fact, they find every way possible to confuse matters with too much commentary, charts and data.
Plain and simple, the gravity of stocks is to move up. Meaning that to move higher is their natural progression UNLESS an opposing force gets in their way.
I'd like to prove this point so you can better understand why stocks will continue higher in 2014. And to learn the signs of what will eventually lead to an overall market decline.
Growth is the most natural thing in the world
I don't mean to get too philosophical here, but it is important to understand that advancing forward is a prime driver of the human condition. This innate desire to do things better leads to improvements in productivity and our standard of living.
It also creates greater economic activity, which is another way of saying higher profits. And profit growth is the main ingredient we investors seek when selecting stocks.
To boil it down:
Human advancement = higher economic activity = higher profits = higher share prices
The above equation proves why the natural order of things is for the stock market to move higher. Unfortunately, it's not all rainbows and lollipops.
Boom and bust cycle
One sad thing about the human condition is that we are also prone to believing that the good times will last forever. This leads to excesses during the boom times that pave the way for the next bust. (And often those excesses are about people, businesses and governments becoming over leveraged.)
Here is the equation for a recession:
Lower economic activity = lower profits = lower share prices*
(*average stock market decline during a recession is 34%)
Gladly, the average U.S. recession only lasts about 13 months, while the average expansion enjoys a healthy 63-month reign. That means we are able to take five good steps forward for every one backwards.
What does that mean for 2014?
It should be clear by now that my premise is this:
Stocks will continue to advance until there are signs of the next recession.
Of course, I don't mean stocks will go up every day, week or month. I mean that the primary long-term trend will be bullish until the odds of a future recession increase.
Right now the odds of a looming recession are very low — so best to stay in the bullish camp heading into 2014.
Steve is the Executive VP in charge of Zacks.com and all of its subscription services.
The information contained in this article should not be construed as investment advice or as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock. Nothing published by Physician’s Money Digest should be considered personalized investment advice. Physician’s Money Digest, its writers and editors, and Intellisphere LLC and its employees are not responsible for errors and/or omissions.