The 3 Horses of the Health Apocalypse

Thirty years ago, in 1985, Peter Drucker published Innovation and Entrepreneurship and described seven sources of innovation opportunity.

The Unexpected

Incongruities

Process Need

Industry and Market Structures

Demographics

Changes in Perception

New Knowledge

The concepts are mostly the same today. But, when it comes to demographics and the opportunities and threats they present, there have been seismic changes. They are represented by three major trends: the aging population, the decreasing fertility rate, and the growth of the non-white population in the US.

Ten thousand patients sign up for Medicare every day. The number of births per person has fallen dramatically, echoing other industrialized countries. Only 5% of physicians in the US are Hispanic, even though we are on track to reach nearly a third of the population by 2050.

Any one of these demographic facts could threaten our sick-care system and continue to bust budgets. Taken together, they offer health entrepreneurs big opportunities to innovate, change models of care, and create value. In addition, to create graduates who can serve the needs of their communities, medical schools will have to adjust their learning objectives and define competencies to satisfy market based needs.

The future of care is bright but only if physician entrepreneurs and their colleagues in care can face up to the challenges by deploying innovation and creating the business models and ecosystems to sustain it.